Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-010945- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Elevated tornado risk. Elevated hail risk. Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk. Elevated flooding risk. Significant lightning risk. Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
DISCUSSION... Gusty southerly winds will develop today behind a passing warm front with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning, especially across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. A few of these storms may produce hail to the size of quarters and locally damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms will then increase in coverage this afternoon and early this this evening, including the potential for supercell thunderstorms. Hail up to two inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with any supercells. The threat for supercell tornadoes will become elevated from late this afternoon into this evening as low level wind shear increases. The thunderstorms are then expected to congeal into a squall line this evening and push east across the area from later this evening into the overnight period. This will include a threat for damaging winds to 70 mph and tornadoes. Portions of the squall line which bow out towards the northeast will have an enhanced tornado threat. An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for today and tonight as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding will then continue into Wednesday and Wednesday night. This includes the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Details regarding the location and timing of these potential hazards will become better known later today and tonight. The risk for thunderstorms will then persist into Thursday and Friday. The potential for severe storms and flooding is unclear at this time. There are then limited chances for thunderstorms early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight across the entire outlook area.
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